Israel has a festering “America problem.” As American disapproval of the US-Israeli relationship grows by the day, the Israeli government faces the very real threat of losing its most committed defender and primary military benefactor. The deterioration of the US-Israeli alliance will have sounding repercussions for Israel’s international ambitions and Middle Eastern geopolitics writ large.

How does Iran maintain their stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz and why is the US unable to force its reopening, despite its military dominance? This article details which tools Iran uses to control the strait and why they are effective.

The Israeli government has been rallying for a war with Iran long before February 28th. The public justification for war is Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program. In reality, the conflict advances Israel’s long term grand strategy: maximizing regional dominance and expanding territorial claims. This analysis explores exactly how the Iran war serves Israel’s ambitions.

In a recent escalatory spat, the Trump administration balked in the face of Iranian pressure. The president quickly withdrew his threat to strike Iranian energy facilities if the Strait of Hormuz was not re-opened in 48 hours after Iran threatened to strike desalination plants in the Gulf. President Trump claimed that he reneged on the ultimatum because of productive negotiations with Iran. However, all evidence indicates that such negotiations are largely overstated. To the contrary, Iran is more confident in their ability to fight than ever.

Less than a year after the 12 day war, the United States and Israel have launched another military campaign against Iran. Based on the current trajectory of the conflict and an empirical analysis of past US interventions in the Middle East, there is little hope for an American victory, even if it successfully overthrows the Iranian government.