In a recent escalatory spat, the Trump administration balked in the face of Iranian pressure. The president quickly withdrew his threat to strike Iranian energy facilities if the Strait of Hormuz was not re-opened in 48 hours after Iran threatened to strike desalination plants in the Gulf. President Trump claimed that he reneged on the ultimatum because of productive negotiations with Iran. However, all evidence indicates that such negotiations are largely overstated. To the contrary, Iran is more confident in their ability to fight than ever.

Less than a year after the 12 day war, the United States and Israel have launched another military campaign against Iran. Based on the current trajectory of the conflict and an empirical analysis of past US interventions in the Middle East, there is little hope for an American victory, even if it successfully overthrows the Iranian government.